The Kelly Criterion Calculator is a staking tool that helps estimate how much of your bankroll could be placed on a bet when you believe you have an edge over the odds.
This tool is mainly used by more experienced bettors. It does not guarantee profit and it depends heavily on your own probability estimate. If your estimate is wrong, the suggested stake can be too high.
How the Kelly Criterion Works
The calculator compares the available odds with your estimated chance of the bet winning. If the odds appear better than your estimated probability suggests, the calculator may recommend a stake size. If there is no perceived edge, it may recommend no bet.
Use the Calculator
We are currently building our own BettingGuru SA version of this calculator. In the meantime, you can use our external Kelly Criterion calculator to estimate a suggested stake.
Open Kelly Criterion Calculator →
Example
If your bankroll is R1,000, the odds are 2.00 and you estimate the true chance of winning at 55%, the Kelly Criterion may suggest a stake based on that perceived edge. Many bettors use a smaller version, such as half Kelly or quarter Kelly, to reduce risk.
When This Tool Is Useful
- Estimating stake size based on bankroll
- Comparing odds against your own probability estimate
- Avoiding random bet sizing
- Understanding risk in value betting
Important Risk Warning
The Kelly Criterion depends on accurate probability estimates. If your estimated chance is too optimistic, the suggested stake may be risky. Conservative staking and strict bankroll limits are important.
Important Disclaimer
BettingGuru SA tools are provided for educational and informational purposes only. Calculator results are estimates and do not guarantee winnings, profit, successful withdrawals or future betting outcomes.
Betting and casino games involve risk. Casino games are designed with a house edge, and betting odds can change quickly. Always check the latest operator terms, bonus rules, wagering requirements and withdrawal limits before depositing or placing a bet.
If gambling stops being fun or you feel that you may be losing control, free and confidential help is available from the South African Responsible Gambling Foundation. Call the toll-free counselling line on 0800 006 008, WhatsApp/SMS HELP to 076 675 0710, or visit responsiblegambling.org.za.
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.